Benchmark of Likelihood-Free Inference Methods based on Neural and Optimal Transport Approaches
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2605.30516v1
- Date: Thu, 28 May 2026 19:53:30 GMT
- Title: Benchmark of Likelihood-Free Inference Methods based on Neural and Optimal Transport Approaches
- Abstract summary: We investigate how the performance of likelihood-free inference methods depends on structural features such as heavy-tails or discreteness.<n>We consider four approaches: MLE, NBE, EOT and AW--NBE and evaluate them using simulations.
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- Abstract: Simulation-based inference (SBI) has become an increasingly important framework for parameter estimation in models for which simulation is feasible, including cases where likelihood evaluation is unavailable or costly. While recent work has introduced benchmark frameworks to compare likelihood-free methods, these studies often do not account for structural features such as heavy-tails or discreteness. In this article, we investigate how the performance of likelihood-free inference methods depends on these structural properties. We consider four approaches: MLE, NBE, EOT and AW--NBE and evaluate them using simulations. This study highlights the importance of carefully selecting evaluation tools in the presence of extremes and discrete data.
Related papers
- A unifying view of contrastive learning, importance sampling, and bridge sampling for energy-based models [1.9459606412374646]
We provide a unified framework that connects noise contrastive estimation (NCE), reverse logistic regression (RLR), multiple importance sampling (MIS), and bridge sampling.<n>This unified perspective clarifies relationships among existing methods and enables the development of new estimators.<n>This study helps elucidate the success of NCE in terms of its flexibility and robustness, while also identifying scenarios in which its performance can be further improved.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2026-04-09T11:36:04Z) - Rethinking BPS: A Utility-Based Evaluation Framework [6.590869939300887]
State-of-the-art approach to evaluating BPS models has two key limitations.<n>It treats simulation as a forecasting problem, testing whether models can predict unseen future events.<n>We propose a novel framework that evaluates simulation quality based on its ability to generate representative process behavior.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-05-28T13:00:52Z) - Confidence in Large Language Model Evaluation: A Bayesian Approach to Limited-Sample Challenges [13.526258635654882]
This study introduces a Bayesian approach for large language models (LLMs) capability assessment.<n>We treat model capabilities as latent variables and leverage a curated query set to induce discriminative responses.<n> Experimental evaluations with GPT-series models demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior discrimination compared to conventional evaluation methods.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-04-30T04:24:50Z) - Model-free Methods for Event History Analysis and Efficient Adjustment (PhD Thesis) [55.2480439325792]
This thesis is a series of independent contributions to statistics unified by a model-free perspective.<n>The first chapter elaborates on how a model-free perspective can be used to formulate flexible methods that leverage prediction techniques from machine learning.<n>The second chapter studies the concept of local independence, which describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2025-02-11T19:24:09Z) - Testing Generalizability in Causal Inference [3.547529079746247]
No formal procedure exists for statistically evaluating generalizability in machine learning algorithms.<n>We propose a systematic framework for statistically evaluating the generalizability of high-dimensional causal inference models.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-11-05T11:44:00Z) - Diffusion posterior sampling for simulation-based inference in tall data settings [53.17563688225137]
Simulation-based inference ( SBI) is capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation.
In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available to better infer the parameters of the model.
We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-04-11T09:23:36Z) - MACE: An Efficient Model-Agnostic Framework for Counterfactual
Explanation [132.77005365032468]
We propose a novel framework of Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanation (MACE)
In our MACE approach, we propose a novel RL-based method for finding good counterfactual examples and a gradient-less descent method for improving proximity.
Experiments on public datasets validate the effectiveness with better validity, sparsity and proximity.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-31T04:57:06Z) - Black-box Bayesian inference for economic agent-based models [0.0]
We investigate the efficacy of two classes of black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods.
We demonstrate that neural network based black-box methods provide state of the art parameter inference for economic simulation models.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-02-01T18:16:12Z) - Scalable Intervention Target Estimation in Linear Models [52.60799340056917]
Current approaches to causal structure learning either work with known intervention targets or use hypothesis testing to discover the unknown intervention targets.
This paper proposes a scalable and efficient algorithm that consistently identifies all intervention targets.
The proposed algorithm can be used to also update a given observational Markov equivalence class into the interventional Markov equivalence class.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-11-15T03:16:56Z) - MINIMALIST: Mutual INformatIon Maximization for Amortized Likelihood
Inference from Sampled Trajectories [61.3299263929289]
Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice.
One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer an amortized estimator for the likelihood-to-evidence ratio.
We show that this approach can be formulated in terms of mutual information between model parameters and simulated data.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-06-03T12:59:16Z) - SAMBA: Safe Model-Based & Active Reinforcement Learning [59.01424351231993]
SAMBA is a framework for safe reinforcement learning that combines aspects from probabilistic modelling, information theory, and statistics.
We evaluate our algorithm on a variety of safe dynamical system benchmarks involving both low and high-dimensional state representations.
We provide intuition as to the effectiveness of the framework by a detailed analysis of our active metrics and safety constraints.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-06-12T10:40:46Z) - Amortized Bayesian model comparison with evidential deep learning [0.12314765641075436]
We propose a novel method for performing Bayesian model comparison using specialized deep learning architectures.
Our method is purely simulation-based and circumvents the step of explicitly fitting all alternative models under consideration to each observed dataset.
We show that our method achieves excellent results in terms of accuracy, calibration, and efficiency across the examples considered in this work.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2020-04-22T15:15:46Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.