Partially Specified Causal Simulations
- URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2309.10514v2
- Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2023 07:59:59 GMT
- Title: Partially Specified Causal Simulations
- Authors: A. Zamanian, L. Mareis, N. Ahmidi
- Abstract summary: Many causal inference literature tend to design over-restricted or misspecified studies.
We introduce partially randomized causal simulation (PARCS), a simulation framework that meets those desiderata.
We reproduce and extend the simulation studies of two well-known causal discovery and missing data analysis papers.
- Score: 0.0
- License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- Abstract: Simulation studies play a key role in the validation of causal inference
methods. The simulation results are reliable only if the study is designed
according to the promised operational conditions of the method-in-test. Still,
many causal inference literature tend to design over-restricted or misspecified
studies. In this paper, we elaborate on the problem of improper simulation
design for causal methods and compile a list of desiderata for an effective
simulation framework. We then introduce partially randomized causal simulation
(PARCS), a simulation framework that meets those desiderata. PARCS synthesizes
data based on graphical causal models and a wide range of adjustable
parameters. There is a legible mapping from usual causal assumptions to the
parameters, thus, users can identify and specify the subset of related
parameters and randomize the remaining ones to generate a range of complying
data-generating processes for their causal method. The result is a more
comprehensive and inclusive empirical investigation for causal claims. Using
PARCS, we reproduce and extend the simulation studies of two well-known causal
discovery and missing data analysis papers to emphasize the necessity of a
proper simulation design. Our results show that those papers would have
improved and extended the findings, had they used PARCS for simulation. The
framework is implemented as a Python package, too. By discussing the
comprehensiveness and transparency of PARCS, we encourage causal inference
researchers to utilize it as a standard tool for future works.
Related papers
- Estimating Causal Effects from Learned Causal Networks [56.14597641617531]
We propose an alternative paradigm for answering causal-effect queries over discrete observable variables.
We learn the causal Bayesian network and its confounding latent variables directly from the observational data.
We show that this emphmodel completion learning approach can be more effective than estimand approaches.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-08-26T08:39:09Z) - Diffusion posterior sampling for simulation-based inference in tall data settings [53.17563688225137]
Simulation-based inference ( SBI) is capable of approximating the posterior distribution that relates input parameters to a given observation.
In this work, we consider a tall data extension in which multiple observations are available to better infer the parameters of the model.
We compare our method to recently proposed competing approaches on various numerical experiments and demonstrate its superiority in terms of numerical stability and computational cost.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-04-11T09:23:36Z) - Investigating the Robustness of Counterfactual Learning to Rank Models: A Reproducibility Study [61.64685376882383]
Counterfactual learning to rank (CLTR) has attracted extensive attention in the IR community for its ability to leverage massive logged user interaction data to train ranking models.
This paper investigates the robustness of existing CLTR models in complex and diverse situations.
We find that the DLA models and IPS-DCM show better robustness under various simulation settings than IPS-PBM and PRS with offline propensity estimation.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-04-04T10:54:38Z) - Conditional Generative Models are Sufficient to Sample from Any Causal Effect Estimand [9.460857822923842]
Causal inference from observational data plays critical role in many applications in trustworthy machine learning.
We show how to sample from any identifiable interventional distribution given an arbitrary causal graph.
We also generate high-dimensional interventional samples from the MIMIC-CXR dataset involving text and image variables.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2024-02-12T05:48:31Z) - Using causal inference to avoid fallouts in data-driven parametric
analysis: a case study in the architecture, engineering, and construction
industry [0.7566148383213173]
The decision-making process in real-world implementations has been affected by a growing reliance on data-driven models.
We investigated the synergetic pattern between the data-driven methods, empirical domain knowledge, and first-principles simulations.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-09-11T13:54:58Z) - Inducing Causal Structure for Abstractive Text Summarization [76.1000380429553]
We introduce a Structural Causal Model (SCM) to induce the underlying causal structure of the summarization data.
We propose a Causality Inspired Sequence-to-Sequence model (CI-Seq2Seq) to learn the causal representations that can mimic the causal factors.
Experimental results on two widely used text summarization datasets demonstrate the advantages of our approach.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2023-08-24T16:06:36Z) - Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model Criticism [1.5749416770494706]
We argue that modellers must treat simulators as idealistic representations of the true data generating process.
In this work we revisit neural posterior estimation (NPE), a class of algorithms that enable black-box parameter inference in simulation models.
We find that the presence of misspecification, in contrast, leads to unreliable inference when NPE is used naively.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-10-12T20:06:55Z) - Amortized Inference for Causal Structure Learning [72.84105256353801]
Learning causal structure poses a search problem that typically involves evaluating structures using a score or independence test.
We train a variational inference model to predict the causal structure from observational/interventional data.
Our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities under substantial distribution shift.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2022-05-25T17:37:08Z) - BayesFlow can reliably detect Model Misspecification and Posterior
Errors in Amortized Bayesian Inference [0.0]
We conceptualize the types of model misspecification arising in simulation-based inference and systematically investigate the performance of the BayesFlow framework under these misspecifications.
We propose an augmented optimization objective which imposes a probabilistic structure on the latent data space and utilize maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to detect potentially catastrophic misspecifications.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-12-16T13:25:27Z) - Partial Counterfactual Identification from Observational and
Experimental Data [83.798237968683]
We develop effective Monte Carlo algorithms to approximate the optimal bounds from an arbitrary combination of observational and experimental data.
Our algorithms are validated extensively on synthetic and real-world datasets.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-10-12T02:21:30Z) - A Simulation-Based Test of Identifiability for Bayesian Causal Inference [9.550238260901121]
We present a fully automated identification test based on a particle optimization scheme with simulated observations.
We show that SBI agrees with known results in graph-based identification as well as with widely-held intuitions for designs in which graph-based methods are inconclusive.
arXiv Detail & Related papers (2021-02-23T15:42:06Z)
This list is automatically generated from the titles and abstracts of the papers in this site.
This site does not guarantee the quality of this site (including all information) and is not responsible for any consequences.